Efremova A. Models and methods of risk monitoring and management at fulfillment of the project

Object of research is managerial process by risks of the project. A research objective is decrease in influence of adverse events on duration, cost and quality of performance of the project on the basis of the control of change of level of risks and management perfection by project risks. The basic methods of research are methods PERT and the earned volume (EV) for an estimation of quantitative characteristics of project risks, methods of the theory of casual processes and the theory of counts for monitoring and management of project risks, methods of the system analysis for structures of project risks and the control of change of level of risks of the project throughout its life cycle. For the first time models of performance of works of the project taking into account management of risks of excess of duration are developed, cost and poor quality of the project on the basis of joint application of a method of the earned volume (EV) and markov casual processes with discrete conditions and time which unlike the existing allow to carry out monitoring of negative influence of project risks and in due time to react to adverse events for the project. The method of definition of level of project risks at the expense of the account of duration of their negative influence on achievement of main objectives of the project that gives the chance to develop corresponding actions of reaction to adverse events for the project is improved. Have received the further development management methods risks of projects regarding definition of size of money resources on creation of reserve funds of self-insurance of project risks for indemnification of expenses in case of approach of adverse events for the project throughout its life cycle. Practical value of the received results consists that the developed models and methods are scientifically-methodic basis for the control of change of level of project risks, constant management of project risks during its performance and are integrated into information technology of businessmodeling the ORG-MASTER of the consulting company «BIG Ukraine». Introduction - branch. Further use of the results received in the dissertation expediently in the project and industrial enterprises which use in the activity principles of project management at realization of projects of manufacturing of a lot of products for the concrete customer.