Nikolaychuk S. Modeling of transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Ukraine.

The theoretical and methodical facilities for modeling of monetary transmission mechanism of the National Bank of Ukraine with the aim of its impact on economic processes optimization are developed in the thesis. The analysis of transmission mechanism of monetary policy concept essence is carried out. The primary channels of central bank's influence on real sector of economy are pointed out. The tendencies of the Ukrainian economy which determine the main features of monetary transmission are analyzed in the context of following using them for structural model developing. The system of assessment of equilibrium and cyclical components of the Ukrainian main macroeconomic indicators with the use of multivariate Kalman filter is summarized. The procedure of high-quality research of the monetary transmission mechanism on the basis of structural VAR model is improved. The main channels of monetary policy (interest rate channel and exchange rate channel) are empirically investigated and quantitatively estimated. Structural model of transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Ukraine for forecasting of consequences of the National Bank of Ukraine actions is developed. Shock analysis of model is done. Policy analysis with the use of the model that pointes to necessity of the National Bank of Ukraine to proceed to more flexible exchange rate policy and more active interest rate policy directed to inflation stabilization on target level for improvement of influence on output and prices is conducted.