Grozava K. Modeling of the crisis events in Ukrainian insurance companies' activities

The dissertation is dedicated to the development and application of economic - mathematical models of express-analysis of crisis events in the activities of Ukrainian insurance companies. In this dissertation conceptual provisions of conducting financial express analysis are suggested. The concept is based on risk groups formation, it logically combines statistical and economic - mathematical methods and aims at early identification of crisis events in insurance companies' financial state. A complex of discriminant and probability models of express evaluation of financial condition of insurance companies' is built. These models allow to allocate insurance companies according to risk groups, raise the degree of objectivity in formation of weighting parameters in integral score calculation, and determine probability of main factors influence on approaching of crisis condition. A system of indicators is proposed in order to form an integral score of financial condition of insurance company. These indicators are transparent, comprehensive and easily obtainable from the existing statistic data. Method of interval application of integral score is improved. It allows to minimize subjectivity and to optimize a decision making process related to the proximity of insurance company to the crisis state.