Knishenko T. Modeling of Ukrainian banking system development based on the scenario approach

In dissertation work the conception of design of the banking system development of Ukraine on the basis of scenario approach has been made, which is based on researching the features of banking systems' development and the analysis of methods and models which are used for the design of the development of the banking system of Ukraine, and also uses the models of evaluation the possibility of carrying out and realization the evolutionary and revolutionary development and allows to build scenarios on the basis of the purpose analysis, current status, the prognosis of this state on a future and NBU limitations, which determine the trajectory of subsequent economic development. It has built the complex of models which includes: the model of determination the conditions of revolutionary transition in the trajectory of development; the model of evaluation the conditions of realization the evolutionary trajectory of development with the use of energy approach; the model of evaluation the banks' cost after the confluence during the realization of scenario "management by changing the behavior". The methods of choice of banks-partners are improved by the evaluation of sinergetic effect of confluence. They are based the principles and methods of forming the territorial bank's network and inculcating of modern information technologies