Sergienko O. Strategic development models of production-economic systems

The Object of the research: strategic development processes of enterprises functioning in a high level uncertainties of environment condition; the purpose of work: developing the complex of strategic development models of production-economic systems (PES) based on estimation and analysis of their development potential, forming and realization of strategic development alternatives in conditions of external and internal environment threats; research and instruments: systems viability theories; methods of the cluster and discriminative analysis; neural networks methods; taxonomy methods; paneling data methods; vector-autoregressive methods of analysis; system dynamics methods; scenario simulation; fuzzy sets theory; theoretical and practical results: model complex of estimation and analysis of PES strategic development, functioning in condition of the uncertainties, based on the conception of the system viability, it provides a selection of perspective alternatives of the enterprise development under threatening conditions; the diagnostics models of the enterprises financial situation, founded on recognition, identifications and forecasting situation, research development dynamic of the main spheres of enterprises vital activity, that are a bases for forming the high-quality strategic decisions; the models of enterprise strategic under threatening conditions, which based on scenario approach and system dynamic concept that allow to research whole collection financial-economic processes; models of enterprise nonlinear dynamic developments, which take into addition long-term balances interactions and causal intercoupling of the investigating spheres of enterprise vital activity; that allows to reveal the possible problems in management these spheres and to value the level of factor influences importance on the change dynamic of the concrete system processes; the models of choosing development strategic alternatives based on using the fuzzy logic, which improve the estimation of level threats on changing enterprise activity factors, determinate the possible scenarios of the development and forecasting result to their realization; the models of forming information space, which difference is to use modern toolbox: the factor analysis methods and robast estimation, taxonomy methods and inverse calculations, witch is a base of forming the factors system for researching PES developments trend; offered scientific results are introduced: in JSC "HARP", JSC "Harverst", SI "Artemovskiy Spirtzavod", JSC "Turboatom", Department of industry, transport and communication of Kharkiv regional state administration; practical importance of results: management of the strategic development process on engineering enterprises.