Antoniuk O. Prediction of the volume of damage and economic compensation from technogenic pollution of environment in the region.

A scientific task which contains complex methodical approach to the modeling and forecasting of economic compensation for the volume of social damage from technogenic pollution is resolved in the thesis. A scientific and methodical approach of prediction of volume of social damage on the basis of an economic-mathematical model is substantiated. The linear component of the model is calculated based on the regression model with constraints on the parameters which take into account priori information on the impact of anthropogenic pollution factors. The component of the model, which accumulates the influence of non-environmental factors (economic, social, genetic, multifactorial) on the volume of social damage, is developed on the basis of periodic nonlinear model. It has allowed making a forecast of possible changes of health status indicators in 2012 - 2014, with less prediction error than using trend models. An algorithm which is formed on the basis of the economic-mathematical model makes it possible to determine the amount of underfunding compensation of social damage that shows how much money should be directed to redress the social damage from technogenic pollution in the region.