Karpenko A. Design of conduct of enterprise which produces products on an export in the conditions of non-linearity of external environment

Research object: behavior of the export-oriented industrial enterprises in environmental stochasticity manifestation and non-linear nature of the economic processes; the purpose of the work: the formation of a complex mathematical economic models of behavior management of export enterprises, with the uncertainty and the nonlinearity of the environment; research methods and instruments: Methods visual and graphical analysis of comparative and monographic analysis, multivariate statistical analysis, methods of adaptive forecasting trends, singular spectrum analysis method (SSA-method), the method of cognitive science; theoretical and practical results: theoretical and practical results: improved conceptual model of the behavior of export enterprises, taking into account the specificity of export orientation of industrial enterprises and non-linearity in certain product segments countries - export consumer products, complex mathematical economic models of diagnosis based on a combination of SSA-method and adaptive forecasting time series, which makes it possible to increase the quality of the forecast path of export-oriented enterprise management behavior based on current trends in the national economy and the economies of counterparties cognitive model of export-oriented industrial enterprises on the basis of determining the relationship between the general indicator of the level of the enterprise and local level value development of its systemoformuyuchyh spheres of life allows building complex scripts control the behavior of an industrial enterprise, had the further development of the methodical approach to decision-making behavior management of export-oriented enterprises, which is designed based on the combination of cube situations and cognitive modeling techniques and on the basis of comparative analysis of direct and inverse problem gives to conduct an informed choice rational scenario enterprise; methodological support diagnosis of external and internal environment of export-oriented enterprises; subject and degree of introduction: developments are put in practical activity of OJSC "Harverst", JSC "Finprofile", sphere of the use: management development engineering enterprises.