Khmelovskyy T. Model of optimization of the exchange rate policy of Ukraine on the basis of the optimal Pareto solutions

The dissertation is devoted to theoretical foundation and development of methodological approaches using methods of multi objection optimization in monetary and exchange rate policy. The basic approaches to macroeconomic modeling and forecasting methods of the nominal exchange rate of the hryvnia are examined. On the basis of chosen criteria mathematical models of their behavior - GDP growth, balance of payments and the dynamic model of the nominal exchange rate with the chaotic behavior are built. An analysis of multicriteria optimization methods was carried out, their benefits, significant drawbacks and limitations were identified. The technique of multicriteria optimization of exchange rate policy by modifying of multicriteria "method of limits", based on Pareto solutions, is proposed. Using the proposed method allowed to obtain regulative planning forecast of the effective sets of control actions from the side of authorized state body responsible for monetary policy. Infological model and software module of Decision making support system in the monetary policy based on multi-criteria approach were developed with the help of Mathematica system. The technique of multi-criteria comparative analysis based on a modified "method of limits" is proposed. With the help of this technique an analysis of the effectiveness of the transition to a currency basket instead of binding national currency to only one foreign currency was made and the most effective composition of the such currency basket for Ukraine in the examined period of time is proposed.