Kovalenko K. The models of crisis situations prevention in financial and economic activity of the enterprise

Research object: The object of study: the process of crisis management in the financial-economic activity of coke enterprises; Objective: To develop a set of models of prevention of crisis situations in the financial and economic activity of coke enterprises to improve management decisions concerning the prevention of crisis situations; research methodology and instruments: analysis and synthesis, generalization and grouping, mathematical statistics, neural networks and discriminant analysis, cluster analysis, fuzzy cluster analysis, correlation and regression analysis, simulation vector autoregression models; theoretical and practical results: a complex of econometric models of crises preventing in the financial and economic activity of coking enterprises, which consists of the subsystems of diagnostics and preventive management, based on a two-dimensional evaluation of the crisis at the plant in the spatial and dynamic sections and aims to enhance the validity of decisions timely crisis prevention; model assessment of the level of crisis of financial and economic activity of the enterprise, based on a minimum set of features defined by subtractive clustering, combining the results of cluster analysis of adaptive prediction and neural networks that allow you to quickly identify a potential crisis in the early stages; identification model depth of the crisis of financial and economic situation of the company, taking into account the vagueness of the boundaries of classes of the crisis with the help of the method of fuzzy c-means, the use of which to reduce the number of situations to the optimum number of fuzzy classes based on specific criteria fuzzy clustering and fuzzy neural networks, which recognize the depth of the crisis target the financial and economic situation; model evaluation and analysis of external factors krizisoobrazuyuschih based on the method of k-means, which allows to justify specific periods of coking industry, as well as on a combination of regression analysis and simulation, to determine the extent to which the deterioration of the financial and economic situation in the coke-chemical enterprises due to external factors; Forecasting Model of crisis situations in the enterprise, based on the use of vector autoregression model and error correction model, allowing to determine the internal sources of crises through the use of scenario analysis "if ... then ..." that helps determine the direction of preventive action; the object and the degree of implementation: proposed issues implemented in practical activities of LLC "Trade RTC" SPE "Naftogazinzhiniring"; Areas of use: anti-crisis activities at the coke enterprises.