Faryna O. Dynamic models for financial system stability assessment in Ukraine.

The dissertation thesis is dedicated to form theoretical and methodological provisions to the assessment of financial system stability in Ukraine by developing a complex of dynamic economic-mathematical models in order to design effective policy measures for ensuring financial system stability in the short- and long-run perspective. Financial stability in the dissertation is treated in the broadest sense considering the ability of financial system to perform its functions of financial recourses distribution and ensuring effective payment infrastructure; financial system does not aggravates macroeconomic turbulences, but instead positively affects the economy through productive financial markets; financial system and its institutional elements are resistant to endogenous and exogenous adverse events and are able to absorb unforeseen shocks; the probability of adverse and unforeseen events does not exceed the level at which financial system becomes unstable. Assessment of financial system stability in the broadest sense is conducted by developing a complex of dynamic economic-mathematical models, including vector autoregression model for express-diagnosis of the institutional stability of the financial system of Ukraine; intermediate system dynamics macro-model of exchange rate formation in Ukraine for the analysis of exchange rate risk emergence; and extended system dynamics macro-model model of open economy for Ukraine to analyze causal relationships between macroeconomic environment and factors of exchange rate risk. In particular, a vector autoregression model enables quantitative estimation of the extent to which financial institutions in Ukraine respond to unforeseen adverse events and absorb destabilizing shocks.