Miroshnychenko I. System of evaluation models of state investment potential

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Candidate of Sciences (CSc)

State registration number

0416U004376

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 08.00.11 - Математичні методи, моделі та інформаційні технології в економіці

24-10-2016

Specialized Academic Board

Д 26.006.07

Kyiv National Economics University named after Vadym Hetman

Essay

The categorical apparatus and the essence of sinvestment potential, the main approaches to its estimation are revealed in the thesis. The methodological approach to the assessment of investment potential is provided. The integrated model, that consists of three levels of hierarchy and based on using artificial neural networks (Kohonen self-organizing maps) and tools of fuzzy logic theory, is constructed. Suggested several input indicators, which characterize investment potential of the country. Analyzed the current state of the world's countries in terms of investment potential. Also, the cluster of countries similar to Ukraine in terms of investment potential has been defined. Suggested the usage of the tools of theory of fuzzy logic on the first level of the hierarchy to assess the investment potential. Also the presence of interdependencies between explanatory indicators by identifying correlations was analyzed. Determined the number of input parameters that are representants their groups. Formed theme for each input and output variable. Given the appearance of functions of terms and their parameters. Formed the base of knowledge and rules of decision-making. Conducted the optimization of all weights of the rules and parameters of membership functions of all the incoming and the resulting variables. Obtained linguistic description of the country's investment potential and quantification of the foreign direct investment for the next year. Conducted experimental research confirms the adequacy of constructed models as well as effectiveness of their use to support decision-making.

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