Natalia S. Methods of assessment and forecasting of the technical condition of marine complex systems

The author has developed methods for evaluating and forecasting technical condition of functionally interrelated and interacting subsystems marine complex technical systems and remote monitoring, diagnosis and prognosis in terms of unpredictable internal and external influences, as well as under extreme anthropogenic and natural conditions. Research developed cognitive simulation and fuzzy models to quantify and predict risk of failures functionally interrelated, interacting subsystems of complex technical systems and remote monitoring, diagnosis and prognosis of extreme anthropogenic and natural impacts, allowed to identify the most vulnerable of the elements influencing the risk assessment element failures subsystems. The development of a decision support method for finding causes of failures diagnosed elements interconnected and interacting subsystems marine complex technical systems, based on the model of Bayesian belief networks, it possible to determine the value and risks of failure to predict the trends changing elements of complex technical systems in order to select their recovery strategies.