Chenarani A. Мodels and methods of risk management in projects of developing aerospace products based on the uncertainty analysis

Object of research is the process of risk management in the projects of developing aerospace products; goal of the research is to increase the effectiveness of risk management based on uncertainty analysis, which enables to form a rational set of reactions for the successful implementation of the projects of developing aerospace products; research methods - principles of system analysis, probabilistic and discrete-event based simulation, meta-heuristic optimization, methods of project management; the results - a set of tools was developed that allow to increase the validity of decisions when choosing the risk management measures for aerospace products development projects. One of the main scientific results of the study is the systematic combination of developed methods and models for achieving the research goal. In addition, an important scientific result is achieving the ability of managing project risks based on quantitative estimates of the uncertainty. The main practical result is a software toolkit that allows to simulate the risks and find the set of measures for effective risk management in aerospace products development projects; novelty - a method for forming the set of risk management actions was developed for the first time, which, in contrast to existing ones, is based on the analysis of uncertainty indices, which enables ensuring the credibility of the estimates of the duration and cost of the project and enables the manager to select rational actions for managing the aerospace products development projects; the methods of quantitative risk assessment have been improved based on the discrete-event Monte Carlo simulation, which takes into account the combined effect of different risks, including the rework risk and uncertainty of the activities parameters on the project implementation, which makes it possible to obtain reliable estimates of the duration and cost of the project; the simulated annealing method got further development in the part of its application in project management for aerospace products development projects, which makes possible reducing the required time for the formation of effective set of risk management actions; methods of risk management got further development for aerospace products development projects due to joint consideration of uncertainty, entropy and risk; the degree of implementation - the results are implemented in: the joint stock company "Motor Sich" in Zaporozhye; the Interdisciplinary Research Institute of Problems of Physical Modeling of Aircraft Mode Operations of the Kharkiv Aviation Institute; the educational process of the National Aerospace University named after N. Ye. Zhukovskiy "Kharkiv Aviation Institute"; field of application - risk management for the aerospace products development projects