Babych T. Mathematical modeling of grain production economic efficiency in Ukraine

The system of models and methods of analysis, forecasting and grain production economic efficiency optimization has been developed in the dissertation work. It includes: linear regression and nonlinear fuzzy models of profitability; optimization model of new grain storage facilities in the steppe region of Ukraine placement (it based of minimum transport costs criterion using pre-clusterization); mathematical models that take into account regional differences in the cost of grain production; a dynamic evolutionary model of the interaction of grain and meat and dairy subsystems of agrarian economy, which allows to determine the conditions of this type systems stability. The study proposes conceptual thesis for estimating synergistic effects of economic and weather-climatic risks to the grain production economic efficiency. Adapted and tested quantitative methods for estimating the grain production economic risk with the consideration of profitability distribution law rejection from normal. Markowitz type models were developed on the risk-based assessments obtained in the preliminary investigation, which provide an opportunity to specify ways to optimize the grain industry structure on the example of the Rivne region.