Ostapenko O. Models and methods for assessing the risk of implementation of budget programs in the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The dissertation summarizes the theoretical and applied principles of the impact of financial risks on the implementation of budget programs in the Armed Forces of Ukraine in conditions of economic instability, substantiates the existence of financial risks in planning and using budget funds that are typical for the Armed Forces in the present conditions and taking into account the developed system or model estimates of financial risks in Canada, Europe and Asia and risk management standards. For the first time, the concept of modeling the impact of financial risks on implementation of budget programs in the Armed Forces in the conditions of economic instability has been developed. The basis of this paper is the results of the conceptual approach of risk assessment for budget programs implementation, optimization modeling of budget allocations, scenario modeling for assessing strategies related to financial risks in implementing budget programs for the needs of the Armed Forces. The optimization model for allocating budget funds to the programs of development of the Armed Forces, based on the linear programming method in the presence of restrictions for each defense budget allocation program, has been improved. It is proved that the model takes into account the levels of the long-term development of the program and its provision, the practical use of which allows approaching NATO standards in the budget and provides an opportunity to predict budget deficits in the risk of its use.