Duma L. Models Of Formation Of The Optimal Branch Structure Of The Region's Economy.

In the dissertation the solution of the actual scientific and practical task of modeling the optimal sectoral structure of the region's economy is proposed and models of estimation, forecasting and choice of optimal structure of the region's economy are developed.The analysis of the approaches developed in the scientific literature to the interpretation of the category "region" has been carried out, the absence of an unified understanding of the essence-functional characteristics of this concept has been revealed and it is substantiated that the region's economy is a hierarchical and dynamic system of interrelated industries and spheres of activity that satisfies the needs of society in material and non-material benefits in the conditions of constant transformation changes. It is established that the determining role in characterizing the structure of the economy belongs to the sectoral structure.Theoretical and practical approaches to modeling the structure of the region's economy on the basis of modern statistical and econometric tools are generalized and developed; structural-dynamic analysis of the economy of the Western economic region was conducted. Significant structural changes in the structure of the economy are their irreversibility and the structural changes in the long run are progressive economic growth.Multivariate models of regional economies are developed. Structural equations are established reflecting the synergetic influence of branches of economy of regions by types of economic activity and forming latent factors of influence on the main economic results of the region. Using the intelligent MARSpline STATISTICA module, empirical equations were obtained to predict the sectoral structure of the region's economy and its states.The tool for predicting the optimal sectoral structure of the region's economy has been developed, in particular, a model for choosing the optimal structure of the region's economy in conditions of uncertainty has been proposed, which made it possible to propose vectors for the development of a structural regional policy.The study of the optimality of the functioning of economic systems in the conditions of manifestation of uncertainty factors in real economic systems is based on the Bayesian approach, which implies the application of the principle of maximizing the use of information in the process of managing socio-economic systems.From the carried out model experiments it was established that according to the Gibbs-Janie’s principle, the optimal structures of the region's economy are characterized by higher mathematical expectations, but the risk level for such a structure is greater. In this way, the proposed tool for choosing the optimal structure of the region's economy from plurality of projections in conditions of uncertainty and risk, which makes it possible to identify the directions of regional structural policy.