Mavrina M. Modeling the processes of reflexive management of consumer demand of commercial enterprises

The dissertation is dedicated to solving the urgent problem of further development and improving the tools for modeling and predicting the behavior of target consumer groups in order to increase the competitiveness of a commercial enterprise in a volatile market environment. In the thesis, the role and place of reflexive management in the organizational structure of a commercial enterprise is determined, the importance of taking into account factors of consumer preferences is clarified, a method for evaluating them based on integrated qualimetry is developed, the probabilistic model of consumer demand based on a modified Huff spatial model is improved, and it is shown that the reflective formation model control actions allows you to determine the cost effectiveness of the particular development of the private sector the country’s economy, due to which it can be a highly effective management tool by choosing the financially optimal type of reflective action. To predict the behavior of target consumer groups, it was proposed to use the methodology of reflective games in combination with spatial interaction models, as well as using methods to determine factors of personal preferences of consumers. For this purpose, in the dissertation, the concept of consumer demand management of commercial enterprises was developed, based on the calculation of the qualitative characteristics of consumer preferences of target consumer groups and determines the most effective information channels of influence, and is better adapted to the specifics of the domestic economy. For the practical implementation of the developed models, a number of studies were carried out related to consumer behavior and their reaction to various groups of products. The sizes of trade zones, consumer groups for their needs are calculated, significant qualitative characteristics of competitors are found. As a tool for reflective impact, an advertising company was used. Since from the point of view of management it is of interest to predict the direction of consumer behavior and numerical measurement, for the practical implementation of the proposed model, the task of forecasting the likely profit from reflective measures has also been carried out. The theoretical analysis and experimental research carried out in the dissertation using the developed concept of reflexive consumer demand management of a commercial enterprise based on the use of systems of economic and mathematical models and marketing tools and statistical data analysis made it possible to draw a conclusion about its effectiveness for predicting the behavior of subjects of economic relations in the microenvironment of a commercial enterprises in order to make adequate decisions in the exit process a new market and management on an already busy market positions.