Klymenko I. Models and methods of evaluation, forecasting and management of activity of railway transport in under uncertainty

The dissertation is devoted to the decision of the actual scientific and applied task on increase of economic efficiency and quality of processes of planning and management of activity of the enterprises of railway transport in the conditions of uncertainty by generalization and development of new theoretical and methodical approaches, and also creation of the improved economic and mathematical models of processes and means of information technologies. implementation. The dissertation for the first time proposes methodological provisions and theoretical and methodological approach to the classification of technological and economic processes represented by anti-persistent time series of observations, and developed a concept of planning, forecasting and economic-mathematical modeling of railway transport enterprises in Ukraine under uncertainty. It developed procedures for the classification of ordered data, which allows to identify additional features of these processes, thereby increasing the reliability and accuracy of forecasting results. In order to provide opportunities for unification of methods and procedures of analysis, planning and forecasting of parameters of non-deterministic production and economic processes of RTU, a theoretical and methodological approach is proposed and a universal economic-mathematical model of processes in the form of extended logistic mapping is formed. In the dissertation the theoretical and methodical approach to formation of economic and mathematical model of information technology on maintenance of optimum planning of processes of service of complexes of objects of park of technical systems considering stochastic factors is offered. The paper improves the theoretical apparatus and procedure of the fuzzy inference method, designed to solve problems of diagnosing the state of economic processes and systems, as well as to form information support technology of analytical servers of automated control systems of railway transport of Ukraine (ACS RTU).