Hrytsyuk P. The dynamic and stochastic methods of modeling and forecasting grain production system of Ukraine.

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Science (DSc)

State registration number

0511U000291

Thesis Registration Form

0511U000291.pdf

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 08.00.11 - Математичні методи, моделі та інформаційні технології в економіці

21-03-2011

Specialized Academic Board

Д26.006.07

Essay

The thesis is devoted to deepen modeling methodology and creation of mathe-matical methods and models of grain production system key indices forecasting. Re-search of dynamic properties was executed and dynamical characteristics values of the grain production system of Ukraine were received. The effect of grain yield recurrence is found with duration of cycles of 41-56 years, 17-23 and 4 years. On the basis of frac-tal analysis of grain yield time series and statistical serial analysis of binary encoded se-ries a conclusion about the reversible character of grain production dynamics is got. With the account of nonstationarity and cyclic reversible dynamics of grain production are developed economic-mathematical models of short-term, medium-term and long-term forecasting of the grain yield and production; the long-term forecast of winter wheat production and grain export potential of Ukraine is built. Proof dependence of grain production profitability on two years production sum and size of export supplies is set and the proper statistical forecasting model is built. Are developed models of risk forecasting evaluation and are offered methods of grain production risk decline in Ukraine and in separate regions. Computations have confirmed the validity of stated theoretical positions and high efficiency of constructed forecast models.

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Dodatky--Додаток А.doc

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Dodatky--ТИТУЛ ДОДАТКА А.doc

Dodatky--ТИТУЛ ДОДАТКА Б.doc

Dodatky--ТИТУЛ ДОДАТКА В.doc

Dodatky--ТИТУЛ ДОДАТКА Г.doc

Dodatky--ТИТУЛ ДОДАТКА Д.doc

Dodatky--ТИТУЛ ДОДАТКА Е.doc

Dodatky--ТИТУЛ ДОДАТКА Ж.doc

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Скорочені позначення.doc

Список використаних джерел.doc

ТИТУЛ.doc

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