Rogozhin O. Demographic situation forming in rural areas of Ukraine: mechanism, regional analysis and forecast

A research object is the rural population of Ukraine, demographic processes and socio-economic factors of its reproduction. The purpose of dissertation work consists in: determination of structural features of the territorial up-diffused mechanism of demographic situation forming in rural areas of Ukraine; creation of theoretical model of this mechanism as the bases of methodical tool of long-term forecasting of reproduction processes of rural population; forecasting of demographic indicators. Methodological basis of research is made by system analysis scientific approach. Research is carried out within the framework of demoprocess conception. The demographic evolution of Ukrainian village is considered in terms of demographic transition conception. For research of functional features of rural population reproduction mechanism the methods of structural analysis are utillized. For research of territorial structure of this mechanism the methods of regional analysis are applied on the basis of factor analysis procedures and procedures of the automated classification. The mathematical design of rural population reproduction mechanism is carried out on the basis of imitation modeling and stochastic modeling approaches. The most substantial scientific results of research consist in: the conception of "demoeconomic niche" is developed on the basis of J.M.Keynes's consumption function (the demographic capacity of economy unlike the demographic capacity of environment or territory); the rule of stability of basic regional differences of rural demographic situation and invariability of "kernels" of rural demographic zones from middle of 1970th is set; the functional and territorial structures of theoretical model of rural population reproduction mechanism are identified; the imitation model of rural population reproduction mechanism is parametrized for the task of future tendencies estimation. The practical value of dissertation results is that the applied task of long-term forecasting of some indicators of rural population natural reproduction and migration is solved. Dissertation results can be drawn in practical activity of Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine, Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine, local and regional government at forming the strategy of economic pre-conditions creation for rural population reproduction and the policy of socio-economic development of rural districts.