Kharlamova H. Economic and mathematical modeling and forecasting of socio-economic systems of national security of Ukraine.

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Science (DSc)

State registration number

0521U100324

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 08.00.11 - Математичні методи, моделі та інформаційні технології в економіці

10-03-2021

Specialized Academic Board

Д 26.001.48

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

Essay

The dissertation is devoted to the development of theoretical and methodological principles of research and economic and mathematical models of national security of the country under current geoeconomic threats. The object of research is methodological, theoretical and applied problems of analysis based on the development and application of methods of mathematical modeling of the functioning and national security of Ukraine under the influence of modern geoeconomic challenges and threats A new concept of solving the scientific and practical problem of assessment and monitoring of socio-economic systems of national security of Ukraine through the adaptation and refinement of methods of mathematical modeling. The author's approach to the assessment of the national security index for tracking the domestic scenario of geoeconomic impacts on the state of state security and the national strength index for intercountry comparison is proposed, which significantly changes the military-political understanding of national security to human-oriented (socio-economic). The information-analytical support of econometric modeling for an estimation of stability of national safety is offered. Economic and mathematical models have been developed to determine the impact of major modern geoeconomic threats and challenges on the state of economic, investment, social, environmental and energy development of Ukraine as the main areas of sub-security, which allowed to form the basis for effective use of relevant policy instruments in government regulation. A set of econometric models has been developed to determine the interaction of the socio-economic situation of the country, global geoeconomic threats and indicators of security risks, such as the terrorist threat, relevant world indices, which confirmed the hypothesis of significant dependence and some subposition of national security on socio-economic development. countries, as well as to identify opportunities for state incentives for the country's resilience to external threats and challenges of this nature, the development of tactical and strategic security programs. The theoretical and categorical apparatus has been improved, which clarifies the definition of such concepts as "national security", "investment security of the state", "environmental security of the state", "national force", "energy security of the state", "social security of the state", "scientific migration". , to take into account the level of development of the world economy, modern megatrends and the impact of geopolitical and geoeconomic factors, changes in the structure of the economy due to technological and social factors, the new paradigm of the National Security Strategy of Ukraine (14/09/2020). Econometric approaches to the analysis of the impact of investment security development on socio-economic indicators of the country's development have been improved, which allows to develop a strategy of investment attractiveness of Ukraine. The methodology of assessing the impact of global crises on the country's economic security in the light of major US and EU actors and their impact on Ukraine has been clarified, which will allow anticipating and applying preventive actions to minimize such threats (including falling world GDP) to national security and security of welfare of citizens of the country. The practical significance of the results is to use this set of econometric models of socio-economic systems of national security to develop a discourse on a new paradigm in national security, based on a thorough analysis of the genesis of the national security paradigm of Ukraine in comparison with European and world practice, NATO approach, methods calculation of relevant world indices. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the use of a set of economic and mathematical models for management decisions by public authorities interested in increasing the level of national security of Ukraine in the current geoeconomic challenges and threats.

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