Kholodenko A. Economic and mathematical modeling of production and transport systems development.

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Science (DSc)

State registration number

0521U100369

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 08.00.11 - Математичні методи, моделі та інформаційні технології в економіці

23-03-2021

Specialized Academic Board

Д 70.052.01

Khmelnytskyi National University

Essay

The dissertation is devoted to the establishment of regularities of optimal development of production and transport systems of different configuration, under different criteria of optimality and variants of competition and integration of participants, under conditions of information symmetry and asymmetry. The fundamental unattainability of effective interaction of independent participants in the production and transport supply chain from within the system and the necessity either the introduction of an external coordination center, or the integration of the system participants have been proved. The expediency of vertical integration and the provision of discounts from the transport tariff for all participants in the production and transport chain, including consumers of products, has been established. The inefficiency of horizontal integration of transport enterprises for the production and transport system as a whole is shown. The theorem is proved that the sum of optimal (at integration of chains) volumes of production in the consumer market always does not exceed the sum of equilibrium volumes. It has been proven that it is easier to resist competition than to be included in the optimal plan. It is shown that in order to better achieve the true goal, it is sometimes advisable to strive for another goal. Under the parallel location of transport enterprises, seaports no longer act as consistent participants in one production and transport supply chain, but as alternative candidates for inclusion in a some chain. The fundamental difference between the competition of service providers and the competition of product manufacturers has been established. However, the general pattern is fulfilled here as well: the optimum (with the integration of ports) is more profitable for them, but economically unstable (it makes sense for each port to deviate from it); equilibrium is stable (it is unprofitable to deviate from it), but it is worse than the optimum in terms of profits. The conditions of optimality in the generalized production and transport system of production and transportation of resources and products are established. The introduction of the transport factor in the model of international trade leads to the differentiation of equilibrium prices and their overall reduction. In contrast to the classic transport problems, which minimize the total cost or total time for transportation, the transport problem is set according to the criterion of maximum profit intensity, which synthesizes financial and time factors and allows to take into account not only costs but also income. The criterion of maximum intensity profits allows to use the classic traveling salesman problem to route optimization cruise and container lines, thus optimizing not only the route between points, as in the salesman problem, but also the choice of attractive points of the route, the duration of the ship's stay in each of these points, and so on. Three groups of necessary conditions of optimality of resources distribution between works of the network schedule are found. By adding the initial and final events to the production and transport network, its interpretation as a network schedule is carried out. Significant fundamental advantages of determining the optimal terms of equipment replacement by the criterion of profit intensity in comparison with the criterion of maximum profit are shown. It is identified three main directions of investment: to increase production capacity, to reduce costs and marketing investments to increase demand (and, consequently, tariffs) by improving product quality, advertising and so on. The relations between the rate of return of the investment project, the probability of its success and the conditions of insurance, which reduce the risk of the investment project to a given value, are determined. The optimal values of port dues rates, number of ship calls and port revenues for three different (linear, convex up, convex down) types of dependences of the number of ship calls on the port dues rate are found. It is shown that under optimizing production and transport systems it is necessary to take into account not only the characteristics of the optimal state, but also the costs of transition from the current (initial) state to this optimal one.

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