The thesis is devoted to the solution of scientific and practical task of the development of effective methodical approaches, mechanisms of management of behaviour of the enterprise, a complex of economic and mathematical models allowing to form the management decision directed on the maintenance of stable behaviour of the enterprise in the conditions of high dynamism of economic processes.
Based on the analysis of the main trends in the world and national economies of Ukraine and Morocco, the problem of managing the behaviour of enterprises in a high level of uncertainty, provoked by the phenomenon of globalization of the world market space, the impact of the latter on the development of national economies and its sectors. It is determined that this most acutely affects the behaviour of enterprises in developing countries, namely Ukraine and Morocco, which have the historical specifics of building a market economy, the difficulty of forming effective market mechanisms and relationships associated with the existence of crises and political instability in the country.
The paper improves the theoretical and methodological basis for managing the behaviour of the enterprise in a non-stationary economy. Based on the generalization and rethinking of key categories, principles, mechanisms and models of economic development theory, enterprise behavioral theory, systems theory, systemology, control theory, active systems theory, crisis theory and modeling theory, an explanatory basis of research is formed. It is proved that the concepts of enterprise development and behaviour are related concepts but not identical ones.
In order to determine promising trends in the development of system-forming sectors of national economies, dynamic models for forecasting the share of VA in GDP and the share of exports in GDP have been developed. The simulation results showed that the structure of the system-forming sectors of the Moroccan and Ukrainian economies is similar and will not change significantly in the future.
A set of vector-autoregressive models (VAR-models) is proposed, the purpose of which is to assess the impact of the external, global environment on the system-forming sectors of the economy, and, thus, on the national economy as a whole. The use of two components of the world financial market, a stock and credit ones, is substantiated as sources of influence. The application of the Granger method and VAR-models allowed to determine the factors influencing the development of system-forming sectors of the economy of Ukraine and Morocco, to analyze the lag structure and to investigate the quantitative impact of each factor on a particular sector. The analysis of variance for the sectors of Ukraine's economy has shown that the greatest impact on the development of its sectors is exerted by the credit market in dollar terms, the development of the Moroccan economy is significantly influenced by the French stock market.
The proposed methodological approach to the formation of an integrated indicator of enterprise behaviour in terms of non-stationary environment comes as a set of models for predicting the behaviour of industrial enterprises and a methodical approach to building scenarios of enterprise behaviour, which contains an optimization model of resource allocation to maintain a stable trajectory of its behaviour.
The mathematical tool of the approach is the developed optimization model of enterprise behaviour, the objective function of which is to optimize its activities within two main behavioral scenarios: aggressive, which leads to a change of stable trajectory and construction of a new attractor of enterprise behaviour; stable, in which the strengthening of the existing class of stability of the behaviour of the enterprise in conditions of external fluctuations is performed. A set of trend models for forecasting capital and labour resources of the enterprise has been developed which allows to determine its resource capabilities in the future and act as limitations of this model. On the basis of the offered optimization model, experimental calculations on the enterprises of Morocco and Ukraine are carried out, changes of the states of behaviour of the enterprise and resource possibilities of achievement of these states are defined. Based on the implementation of simulation experiments, it is formed a set of management scenarios for correcting the behaviour of the enterprise in terms of optimal combinations of capital and labour resources and it is identified the most appropriate of them by achieving the possible state of stability of its behaviour taking into account environmental disturbances and internal resource constraints.
The approbation of the obtained scientific and practical results of the research was carried out at the Moroccan enterprises Lafarge, OCP1, Cosumar, Central Danon, Risma and the Ukrainian enterprises of PJSC "Turboatom", JSC "ZALK", KERNEL, PJSC "Pivdenkabel", FG "Ukrlandpharm".
